Tour de France 2026 power rankings: Tadej Pogacar still No. 1 - but Jonas Vingegaard is not No. 2

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Two riders - Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard - still dominate the conversation in the battle for the yellow jersey. But the 2026 Tour de France will also bring other big players into the fight. We rank the top 10 contenders for general classification glory.

How does the team time trial work on Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour de France?

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Only two riders have won the Tour de France , which starts on Saturday, July 4 and is live on TNT Sports and HBO Max, in the last six years, with Jonas Vingegaard’s two victories, in 2022 and 2023, sandwiched between two doubles for Tadej Pogacar.

The Slovenian leads the head-to-head between the rivals by four wins to the Dane’s two, with Pogacar’s debut win in 2020 coming a year before Vingegaard made his Tour debut.

Many have made the argument that theirs is the greatest rivalry in Tour de France history. It is certainly one of the longest and most sustained, with no one else really getting a sniff during the past six years.

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But what fans have yet to witness is a genuine see-sawing showdown between the two best stage racers in the peloton, with blows exchanged and the pendulum swinging this way and that.

The closest we got was in 2022, when Pogacar spent five days in yellow before conceding the lead to Vingegaard in Stage 11. The Dane went on to win by 2’43” in Paris - the smallest margin separating the duo in a Tour.

The year prior, Pogacar put five minutes into Vingegaard in 2021, before the Dane beat a depleted Pogacar by 7’29” in 2023 - the biggest gap between the two, albeit one that came off the back of the Slovenian’s big crash in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

When Vingegaard was derailed by his own pre-Tour crash - in Itzulia back in 2024 - Pogacar dominated, winning in Nice by over six minutes; last year, his winning margin was 4’24”.

In summary, as captivating and all-encompassing as this rivalry is, there has only been one Tour when both riders have traded the yellow jersey (2023), and no Tour where it’s been remotely close at the finish.

Will that change in 2026? It’s doubtful, given Pogacar’s monstrous form, and the fact that Vingegaard has already gone deep this summer to win the Giro d’Italia.

But one thing that might spice things up are the Tour debuts of two of the stand-out stars of 2026: Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates-XRG team-mate Del Toro, and the French teenager Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM).

Throw in Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe duo Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz - who both finished third in their respective Tour debuts - and Juan Ayuso at Lidl-Trek, and we have a seven-strong collective of GC riders all harbouring podium aspirations.

It is time now to take a closer look at the main contenders for the maillot jaune in the 113th edition of the Tour de France, ranking their chances while outlining their strengths and shortcomings.

Tour de France 2026 route map

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10. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Once touted as a viable Plan B for Visma, 26-year-old Jorgenson has proved himself something of a week-long stage race specialist in recent years, twice winning Paris-Nice, and finishing runner-up in Tirreno, Romandie and at the Dauphine.

Yet to win this season, the American was fourth in the rebranded Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alps - ahead of the likes of Tobias Johannessen (Uno X-Mobility), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar) and the Netcompany INEOS duo of Kevin Vauquelin and Carlos Rodriguez, but behind winner Del Toro and runner-up Juan Ayuso.

Team-mates Davide Piganzoli and Sepp Kuss are arguably better climbers than Jorgenson, but both riders went deep for Vingegaard at the Giro, the rookie Italian – who was expected to ride the Vuelta – clearly going into the red as he secured eighth place in Rome.

Jorgenson’s best Tour result was eighth in 2024, and it’s hard to envisage a scenario where he betters that this year, especially with the general improvement of the fringe GC candidates.

Matteo Jorgenson will hope for a successful Tour de France

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9. Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling)

The 26-year-old Briton is making his first post-Ineos appearance at the Tour, but his preparations have been hampered by illness, which kept him out of the Tour de Suisse.

Perhaps it's no bad thing. Psychologically, it might have made a whopping dent had Pidcock finished seven or eight minutes behind Pogacar.

Instead, Pidcock tested his legs at the Andorra MoraBanc Classica, where he beat a decent field to take his fourth win of the season. Third in last year’s Vuelta, Pidcock will hope to build on his career-best 13th at the Tour.

But it’s unlikely, given his team support and his own ceiling, that he’ll feature in the top five come Paris.

'Knew what he had to do' - Pidcock times late attack to perfection to claim stage 3 victory

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8. Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)

Like Pidcock, the Ecuadorian veteran climber will have to do it all himself given the paucity of EF’s climbing support in their roster, with Ben Healy better suited to seeking breakaway wins in the hills.

Injured for much of the spring, Carapaz made his return at the Tour de Suisse, where he finished runner-up, but over six minutes down on Pogacar - to highlight the gulf between the favourite and his ostensible rivals.

Third in 2021, Carapaz won a stage and the polka dot jersey at the 2024 Tour; the 33-year-old would be better suited to trying to replicate that instead of bidding to ghost his way to a GC win, as he attempted in last year’s Giro.

Richard Carapaz will have to do it all himself in the weeks to come

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7. Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe)

It has been an odd first season at Red Bull for Evenepoel, whose stock has plummeted without so much as a turn of the pedals.

After turning 26 in January, the Belgian picked up three wins in as many days in Spain, then capped it off with a dominant display in the Volta Comunitat Valenciana. But he struggled in the UAE Tour, despite starring in the time trial, and once again came up short in the mountains at Catalunya.

It seems like Evenepoel’s continued improvement against the clock is coming at the detriment of his uphill performances, which doesn’t bode well in his continued bid to crack the Pogacar-Vingegaard duopoly at Le Tour.

Remco Evenepoel has pressure on his shoulders going into Le Tour

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If rumours of an appearance at the Giro were unfounded, Evenepoel has not ridden since finishing third in Liege-Bastogne-Liege - sparking fresh concerns about his presence on Red Bull’s Tour roster.

But he makes the cut alongside last year’s white jersey, Florian Lipowitz.

Who leads the team is anyone’s guess – but as questions remain over Evenepoel’s three-week stage race ability, the pressure will be on for former Soudal Quick-Step rider to prove his worth and salary.

Having gone backwards during his recent performances in the mountains, Evenepoel now finds himself behind a raft of younger and better climbers - a huge concern for him and his team.

6. Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)

Just over a month ago, people were talking up the 19-year-old as Pogacar’s only challenger in a race he has never ridden before. Understandable, given Seixas’s meteoric rise this season, but also quite ridiculous given he has never ridden anything longer than a nine-day stage race in his short career to date.

Still, Pogacar was in the same boat when he rocked up at the Vuelta in 2019, soared to a hat-trick of stage wins and ended up on the third spot of the podium in Madrid. That third step would seem to be Seixas’s ceiling this July, although his troubles in the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - which he failed to finish following a crash on the penultimate day - have further reined in expectations.

Teen sensation Seixas becomes youngest La Fleche Wallonne winner on debut

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Being not only French, but extremely talented, the pressure will be on for Seixas to deliver in a race the hosts have not won for 41 years.

But he’d be better off pushing for stage wins and the polka dot jersey on his debut - riding for experience rather than setting himself unrealistic targets.

5. Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)

Putting the Spaniard above Seixas in the pecking order may seem like folly to those of us who have seen the latter go shoulder-to-shoulder with Pogacar on several occasions this season.

But there is some logic to this madness.

Before DNFs at both Paris-Nice and Itzulia Basque Country, Ayuso won the Volta ao Algarve in his first run-out in Lidl-Trek colours.

The 23-year-old then put in a solid performance on his return to action at the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, finishing second in the final two mountain stages behind eventual race winner Del Toro.

Questions remain over Ayuso’s temperament and team worth ethic - and he has failed to finish two of his last three Grand Tours.

But he remains a talented young rider and one of the best climbers in the peloton. Should he stay up and out of trouble, and things click alongside Mattias Skjelmose as they did in the Dauphine, then Ayuso should be targeting a top-five finish.

Juan Ayuso

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4. Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe)

For all the distraction of Evenepoel’s big-money move to Red Bull, it’s been the rangy German who has been performing solidly throughout the season in all his stage races.

Eighth in the Algarve, third in Catalunya, runner-up in both Itzulia and Romandie, 25-year-old Lipowitz continued his upward trajectory with the overall victory in the Tour of Slovenia after back-to-back stage wins in the mountains.

Given he finished third and took the white jersey in his debut Tour last year for Red Bull, Lipowitz will be eager to stake his claim to lead his team over Evenepoel - especially should the Belgian continue his travails in the mountains.

It will be telling to see what happens on the fifth day of the Tour when the race goes up the Tourmalet, where Evenepoel clambered into the Quick-Step team car last year.

Tadej Pogacar and Florian Lipowitz will do battle again this summer

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While Lipowitz stood alongside Pogacar and Vingegaard on the final podium last year, he was 11 minutes down on the Slovenian, so he’s hardly knocking on the door.

On their day, there are many better climbers than Lipowitz - not least Seixas. But the German has tenacity and staying power. The next three weeks could decide his status at Red Bull going forward.

3. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Australia’s Michael Storer recently predicted that the Dane would win the yellow jersey at a canter - presumably off the back of his stylish victory in the Giro.

If Storer’s words ramped up the anticipation levels, they didn’t age well. No sooner had he made these lofty assertions, than Pogacar had attacked with over 70km remaining of the opening stage of the Tour de Suisse.

In one fell swoop, Pogacar reminded the world of his unerring class while pouring cold water on Storer’s prediction - and anyone who thinks Vingegaard can match his rival’s double from 2024.

It remains to be seen how the 29-year-old reacts to riding the Tour so soon after the Giro. But he managed it okay in the Vuelta last year, which he won after missing out to Pogacar in the Tour.

Still, this will be his fourth Grand Tour on the bounce - and even though his Visma team continue to press home the narrative that Vingegaard’s numbers are always better on his second major race of the year, that doesn’t take into account Pogacar’s own numbers, which are simply extraterrestrial.

Watch Vingegaard's best moments as Dane claims Giro crown

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Winning the Giro saw Vingegaard complete his Grand Tour grand slam – a slice of history even Pogacar has yet to achieve. But even if the Slovenian crashes out in France, Vingegaard may still come up short.

He’s not the force that he was, there’s no Wout van Aert this year to help him, and the competitors that appeared far away in the rear-view mirror are now breathing down his neck.

Could this be the first time Vingegaard doesn’t finish on one of the top two steps of the podium in Paris? Quite possibly.

2. Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Whisper it quietly, but the Tour de France debutant we should all be looking out for is not so much the great French hope Seixas, but a Mexican bull who rides in support of the four-time winner.

Since missing out on the Giro last year, Del Toro has been in scintillating form, scooping a whopping 24 wins. This year alone, the 22-year-old has won the UAE Tour, Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - all while supporting team-mate Pogacar to glory at Strade Bianche and Milano-Sanremo.

It’s inconceivable that Del Toro beats Pogacar to yellow in Paris - but should something happen to the Slovenian, UAE have a like-for-like replacement who, on current form, can beat everyone else.

Put simply, a Pogacar-Del Toro one-two in Paris is the most likely conclusion, on paper, to this Tour.

'What a talent!' - Del Toro wins Stage 8 to take yellow jersey

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1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

We are fast running out of superlatives for the 27-year-old double world champion, who looks to be on the cusp of joining the Five Tour club in the same season that he has won three of the four Monuments to date (coming runner-up in the other by a whisker in the Roubaix velodrome).

Only once in his 16 race days has his finishing position been in double figures (12th in Stage 3 of the Tour de Suisse), with Pogacar’s winning percentage being an almost comedic 69%.

With Michael Storer talking up Jonas Vingegaard’s chances in the Tour, while the next generation of Del Toro and Seixas did battle in the Dauphine, Pogacar rocked up at the Tour de Suisse and soloed to glory on the opening day with a break of 72km.

The Slovenian’s winning margin of 6’32” in Switzerland’s was the race’s largest in 67 years - and was one second less than the combined winning margins of the last 10 editions, according to stats boffin Cillian Kelly.

Unless he crashes or falls ill, Pogacar will win this Tour - and his winning margin might be his largest yet. We will also have a good idea whether Mark Cavendish’s stage record of 35 wins is realistically under threat. Pogacar only needs 14 more to match the Manx Missile, and he could halve that this July.

'I changed a lot of plans' - Pogacar admits schedule is still up in the air

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Who failed to make the cut for the top 10?

Netcompany INEOS have no riders in our top 10 despite the winter additions of Oscar Onley and Kevin Vauquelin. Scottish climber Onley has not recovered from the shoulder injury sustained in the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, while Frenchman Vauquelin, despite top fives in the Algarve and Paris-Nice, has struggled since his move from Arkea-B&B Hotels.

Spain’s Carlos Rodriguez, meanwhile, has had a disappointing season. A DNF last year, Rodriguez finished in the top 10 of his previous four Grand Tours. But that run looks under threat now. Although still only 25, the Spaniard is fast becoming yesterday’s news. Twentieth in the Dauphine doesn’t bode well. Which might explain why Ineos have overlooked Rodriguez for the Tour.

Seventh in the Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, Belgium’s Cian Uijtdebroeks is riding into a bit of form for Movistar – but just not as much as so many around him. Western Australian trio Jai Hindley, Ben O’Connor and Michael Storer all rode the Giro and might struggle to make a meaningful impression, while Adam Yates will be in full mountain lieutenant mode at UAE.

Norway’s Tobias Johannessen has performed well for Uno X this season but he’ll need to get into a big breakaway if he wants to crack the top 10, ditto Antonio Tiberi of Bahrain-Victorious, whose stock has dropped considerably since his fifth place in the Giro in 2024. Mikel Landa’s best days for Soudal Quick-Step could be behind him - hence his own non-selection - while Thymen Arensman (Netcompany INEOS) will be in stage-hunting mode.

There will be too many cooks at UAE for Brandon McNulty to shine, while his failure to commit his future to TotalEnergies will scupper Jordan Jegat’s bid to improve on his unlikely tenth place last year.

Beating Pogacar to Triple Crown would be 'massive' for Vingegaard

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Rider ratings for the 2026 Tour de France

***** Tadej Pogacar

**** Jonas Vingegaard, Isaac del Toro

*** Paul Seixas, Juan Ayuso, Florian Lipowitz, Remco Evenepoel,

** Richard Carapaz, Tom Pidcock

* Thymen Arensman, Kevin Vauquelin, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Jai Hindley, Ben O’Connor, Adam Yates, Michael Storer, Matteo Jorgenson, Tobias Johannessen, Antonio Tiberi, Mattias Skjelmose

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