Arsenal quadruple odds: How likely is a Premier League, UEFA Champions League, FA Cup and League Cup four-trophy sweep?
By Ben Snowball
Updated 18/03/2026 at 16:16 GMT
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Could Arsenal actually win the quadruple? With Opta giving them a 97.6% chance of winning the Premier League and installing them as favourites in the other three competitions, Mikel Arteta’s side look poised for a trophy-laden season. With a Carabao Cup final against Manchester City on Sunday, the next few days could shape whether this becomes a historic charge - or another near miss.
Highlights: Eze and Rice beauties see Arsenal into quarters
Video credit: TNT Sports
Six years without a major trophy. Now Arsenal are staring at the possibility of four in just two months.
The Gunners booked their place in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals with an impressive 2-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday, sealing a 3-1 aggregate victory and maintaining momentum on all fronts.
Next up is a Carabao Cup final against Manchester City on Sunday. A chance not just to end their silverware drought, but to land another psychological blow on their closest domestic rivals.
Already running away with the Premier League, and favourites in the other three competitions, could Arsenal actually do the unthinkable and win the quadruple?
We spoke to Arsenal legend Martin Keown and stats boffins Opta to find out how realistic it really is.
How realistic is an Arsenal quadruple?
With a nine-point lead in the Premier League, a favourable path in Europe and an Emirates FA Cup quarter-final with Championship side Southampton, it is all looking rather rosy for Arsenal right now.
Indeed, Opta’s projections underline just how strong their position is:
| Competition | Trophy chances |
| Premier League | 97.6% |
| UEFA Champions League | 32% |
| Emirates FA Cup | 36.4% |
| Carabao Cup | 63% |
Put it all together, and their chance of winning the quadruple sits at 7.16%.
| Trophy total | Odds |
| 0 | 0.38% |
| 1 | 16.7% |
| 2 | 43.7% |
| 3 | 32.1% |
| 4 | 7.16% |
But Keown knows exactly how quickly these dreams can unravel. He was part of the Arsenal side chasing everything in 2003/04 - a season that delivered immortality in the league with the Invincibles, but nothing else.
"It's testing but it's a joy. To be in every competition is what you wait your whole career for sometimes," he said.
"In 2003/04, we went the whole season unbeaten, we were still in the Champions League, in the semi-finals of the League Cup and the semi-finals of the FA Cup.
"But you realise that things can end very quickly, so you play every game as if it's your last and every training session like it's your last.
"You have to love it, not fear it, because you've worked your whole career to get into these situations."
Keown is right to be cautious. While a 97.6% chance of winning a first Premier League title in over two decades sound good, City have a game in hand and host Arsenal at Etihad Stadium on April 19. Win both and those odds will shrink.
Liverpool came the closest to landing a quadruple in 2021/22, winning both domestic cups before missing out on the Premier League title by a single point and losing the Champions League final to Real Madrid.
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Eze SCREAMER puts Arsenal ahead
Video credit: TNT Sports
Is the League Cup a springboard for success?
Historically, winning the Carabao Cup gives only a modest bump - teams go on to win an average of 1.45 trophies in a season. But Keown believes this final has extra significance.
"If you can beat Man City, and they can get a feeling of how good you are up close, and you send that message, that resonates for the rest of the season," he said.
"If Arsenal win this, with the gap they have in the league, City will feel that energy and think, 'hold on, how on earth are we going to pull ourselves back to a team like this?'"
Naturally, we pushed Keown to predict how many trophies Arsenal would lift this season. He didn't bite.
"Absolutely no idea," he said. "The noise and hysteria that's out there, so many detractors of Arsenal just want to hear someone close to the club giving silly numbers.
"It's one at a time. The one at the weekend is the closest, so go and win that and then set records."
Are Arsenal ruthless enough?
For all of Arsenal's dominance against Leverkusen, it took two brilliant goals - an outrageous strike on the half-turn from Eberechi Eze and a fine curling effort from Declan Rice - to see them home.
They failed to convert a string of promising situations in both legs, with TNT Sports expert Karen Carney highlighting the issue.
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Rice scores 'magnificent' second for Arsenal
Video credit: TNT Sports
"I think they do need to be more clinical," she said.
"When you get these opportunities, you maybe see other teams that have played in the competition already tonight, they're clinical, they're ruthless. When they get into the final third - bang. It's that instinct, cut-throat."
The numbers seem to agree. Arsenal created 3.34 expected goals (xG) across the two legs and scored three - which given the low probability of Eze and Rice's strikes finding the net, implies that chances were left on the table.
Compare that to European champions Paris Saint-Germain, who saw off Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate despite a total xG of just 1.99.
Carney continued: "The better teams that you play at the real top, top tier of European football, it only takes one moment, and they have to take [their chances], Arsenal.
"That's my only criticism. They’re finding their way, they're in a great position in four competitions, but that last little bit in the final [third], it's going to be those moments."
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