AC Milan face top-four stress test as goals dry up to leave UEFA Champions League at risk ahead of visit of Atalanta in Serie A

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AC Milan face an anxious end to the season after a slump in form saw them go from chasing the title to risking losing a UEFA Champions League place. What has gone wrong?

Highlights: Milan and Juventus settle for goalless draw in race for Champions League

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It was all going so smoothly. You only need to rewind seven weeks to find the moment more optimistic Milan fans were dreaming of pinching the Scudetto from under Inter’s noses.

The Rossoneri’s 1-0 Derby della Madonnina victory in March not only completed a rare seasonal double in the fixture, but saw them cut the gap to the top to seven points, which then closed to five a couple of weeks later.

However, a calamitous collapse since then means they are now at risk of not only suffering the indignity of watching their cross-town cousins celebrate wrapping up a 21st league title with three games to spare, but tumbling out of the UEFA Champions League spots in a manner that seemed unthinkable not long ago.

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Last weekend's 2-0 defeat to Sassuolo was described by Massimiliano Allegri as the "worst Milan of the season," with the coach adding that "maturity" was now needed to avoid "throwing away 10 months of work."

Finishing eighth last season left Milan out of Europe altogether and returning to the top table has been Allegri's outspoken objective all season long.

But with their form flagging and Roma and Como creeping up behind ahead of Sunday’s huge clash with Atalanta, live on TNT Sports and HBO Max, Allegri is facing increasing scrutiny going into a nerve-racking season finale.

Watch as Inter celebrate after winning Scudetto

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Where did it all go wrong?

Milan’s form has fallen off a cliff since Pervis Estupinan rifled home the Milan Derby winner on March 8 to complete the Rossoneri’s first double in the fixture for 15 years.

Since then, Allegri’s side have picked up just two wins from seven games and a total of seven points from a possible 21.

For much of the season, they looked a typically resilient Allegri side, built on a bedrock of defensive discipline and focused on edging games rather than dominating them: 13 of Milan’s 19 wins this season have been by a single-goal margin.

After losing their opening game at home to Cremonese, Milan went on a 24-game unbeaten run, but losing to Parma in February seemed to topple the fine balance of their matches in the wrong direction.

Defeats followed at Lazio and Napoli, both by 1-0 margins, before a humbling 3-0 defeat at home to Udinese and last weekend’s 2-0 reverse away to Sassuolo.

Eagle-eyed readers will spot a theme here – where are the goals?

Misfiring strikers under pressure

Milan’s slump in form has coincided with a desperately poor run in front of goal. Coming into Sunday’s clash with Atalanta, the Rossoneri have mustered one goal in their last five games – Adrien Rabiot’s winning strike against Verona three weeks ago.

One goal. For a team that invested heavily in a frontline boasting Rafael Leao, Christian Pulisic, Christopher Nkunku, Santiago Gimenez and – since January – Niclas Fullkrug, it is an astonishingly poor return.

All of Milan’s forwards have struggled to find form in Allegri’s 3-5-2 system this season, but particularly since the turn of the year.

Pulisic, the poster boy of the United States team that will soon be in action at the World Cup on home soil this summer, has failed to find the net for club or country in 2026.

Highlights: Politano strikes winner as Napoli leapfrog Milan

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Leao’s last strike came on March 1, Nkunku is on a dry spell since the start of February, while Fullkrug’s solitary goal came not long after he arrived on loan from West Ham in January. Mexico international Gimenez has spent much of the season injured, but hasn’t scored a league goal.

When you put it all together, Milan’s 48-goal haul from 35 matches thus far has them barrelling towards their lowest-scoring season for a decade, since netting 49 in 2015/16.

State of play in the UCL race

Milan’s nosedive not only quickly extinguished any lingering flicker of hope of a title challenge, but allowed a once-distant chasing pack to catch up.

Going into Sunday’s clash with Atalanta, Milan’s lead over Roma in fifth place has been cut to just three points, with three rounds still to play.

Earlier on Sunday, the Giallorossi travel to a Parma side that has already achieved its objective of securing survival, on paper a much simpler task than facing an Atalanta side that may have fallen out of the top-four race, but remains a dangerous force.

Between Milan and Roma sit Juventus, who go to relegation-battling Lecce on Saturday night in another match that will be broadcast live on TNT Sports and HBO Max.

Cesc Fabregas’ Como are still in the mix too as they eye their first-ever European qualification in just their second season back in the top flight.

The ambitious Lariani have the most work to do, sitting three points behind fourth-placed Juve, but have the simplest run-in, facing two sides in the bottom three – Verona and Cremonese – either side of Parma.

Here is the run-in facing the four sides battling it out for the final two Champions League places, with second-placed Napoli likely – barring a dramatic collapse – to be safe in second place on 70 points.

3. Milan, 67 pts: Atalanta (H), Genoa (A), Cagliari (H)
4. Juventus, 65 pts: Lecce (A), Fiorentina (H), Torino (A)
5. Roma, 64 pts: Parma (A), Lazio (H), Verona (A)
6. Como, 62 pts: Verona (A), Parma (H), Cremonese (A)

In Serie A, head-to-head is the tiebreaker when teams finish level on points.

Here, Milan do have reason to be cheerful, as they hold the edge on H2H over both Roma and Como.

The same can’t be said with Juventus, after two goalless draws between the sides this season.

Placement between those two sides would therefore be settled on goal difference if they end up level and, with Juve on +28 and Milan on +19, it is advantage Bianconeri on that front.

Highlights: Inter edge seven-goal thriller in comeback classic at Como

Video credit: TNT Sports

The newspapers are already filling up with talk about the devastating potential impact of Milan sliding out of the top four.

”Without [the UCL] Max Allegri is a doubt and it’s goodbye Luka Modric," said a Gazzetta dello Sport headline this week.

Modric’s permanence at San Siro is likely to depend on playing at the top level of European competition again, with the 40-year-old Croatian yet to commit to a second year, while Allegri’s future is also being called into question should they fail.

Safe to say, then, that while it’s party time on the black-and-blue side of Milan, the Rossoneri face an anxious few weeks ahead.

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