Cabo Verde's chances of reaching World Cup last 32 - what do they need in final group match, and who could they play next?
Updated 22/06/2026 at 19:49 GMT+1
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It was another astonishing day in Cabo Verde's history at the World Cup as the African minnows drew 2-2 with two-time winners Uruguay, backing up their remarkable goalless draw against Spain in their tournament debut.
'It's in our hands' - Lopes reveals Cabo Verde are targeting the knockout stages
Video credit: SNTV
Kevin Pina's long-range free-kick put the underdogs in front, but two Uruguay goals late in the first half turned the game on its head.
Helio Varela capitalised on a mistake from goalkeeper Fernando Muslera to equalise just after the hour mark, though, and Cabo Verde held on for a second memorable result in North America.
Not content with just appearing on the biggest stage for the first time, the newcomers could well find themselves in the knockout stage.
According to Opta, they now have a 69.79% chance of progressing to the last 32 of the tournament.
In a group that looked intimidating for a country with a population of just 525,000 people, Cabo Verde have performed above all expectations.
By comparison, Ecuador, who many picked as the tournament's dark horses, are only given a 29.37% chance of reaching the last 32 by Opta.
Uruguay have a 41.60% chance, while Africa Cup of Nations finalists (and potential winners) Senegal have a 56.46% chance.
Cabo Verde's prospects are boosted by the fact that they face Saudi Arabia in their final group match.
The latter battled to a 1-1 draw against Uruguay in their opener, but were thrashed 4-0 by European champions Spain on Sunday.
A draw for Cabo Verde against Saudi Arabia could well be enough to seal their progression from the group.
If they better Uruguay's result against Spain, then the African side are guaranteed to go through in second place.
But finishing third on three points could see them advance as one of the best third-placed teams, depending on results elsewhere.
A win against Saudi Arabia would guarantee Cabo Verde's place in the knockout stages with five points, and it seems a real possibility given both teams' performances so far.
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Who could Cabo Verde play in last 32?
Finishing third would mean Cabo Verde meet one of several group winners in the last 32. That could include France, Mexico, England and Egypt as things stand.
If Cabo Verde finish second in their group, they will play the winner of Group J in Miami on Friday, July 3.
That is likely to be Argentina, a potentially daunting prospect given the form Lionel Messi appears to be in.
But having shut out Spain - albeit with Lamine Yamal only involved as a second-half substitute - Cabo Verde will be full of confidence going into any match.
"A country may be small and struggle financially, but if they're resilient, if they work in an organised manner, they can also stand shoulder-to-shoulder with major teams," Cabo Verde manager Bubista said.
"You can achieve great things regardless of your challenges."
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