FIFA World Cup 2026: England among favourites to lift the trophy - but who has the Opta supercomputer tipped to beat The Three Lions to it?
By Ben Southby
Published 05/06/2026 at 17:29 GMT+1
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With just days before the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off, it's that time again - the Opta supercomputer has been rolled out and has predicted the favourites to lift the trophy.
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England began their pre-tournament preparations earlier this week, flying out to Miami ahead of friendlies against New Zealand and Costa Rica, as they hope to end a 60-year wait to win the World Cup.
Meanwhile, Lionel Messi's Argentina will look to defend the crown they claimed in Qatar four years ago, while France will look to wrestle it back. European champions Spain will no doubt have their say too.
There are plenty of nations in with a shout, in what will be the largest World Cup tournament to date, with 48 teams set to battle it out in the United States, Canada and Mexico to make the final on July 19.
So, which nations does the supercomputer think have the best chance of success? And which teams have an outside shot of immortality? Let's take a look...
Spain tipped for glory
Spain last lifted the trophy in 2010, for the first and only time in their history, and they have a good omen going into this one - they were European champions at the time.
After winning UEFA Euro 2008 to claim their second European crown, they headed to South Africa with high hopes of ending their wait for a maiden World Cup, and they got the job done.
Andreas Iniesta's famous 116th-minute winner broke Dutch hearts in Johannesburg as their star-studded squad - which included the likes of Iker Casillas, Carlos Puyol, Xavi, Sergio Busquets and David Villa - sealed football's greatest prize.
Arguably, Spain have their most exciting squad since that era, with stars such as Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Pedri and Nico Williams among their ranks.
Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams celebrate scoring against England in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin
Image credit: Getty Images
Opta has given Spain a tournament-leading 16.1% chance of becoming two-time world and European champions.
In the same group as Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, Spain are heavy favourites to top their table and will likely face either Algeria, Austria or Jordan in their first knockout tie.
That would probably set them up to play one of DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia, Croatia, Ghana or Panama - should results go as expected - to reach the quarter-finals, which they have a 51.2% chance of doing so, according to the supercomputer.
Luis de la Fuente's side have been given a whopping 25.6% chance of reaching the final for the first time since they won the tournament 16 years ago.
France to miss out again?
France had their world champion status ripped away from them in the cruellest fashion four years ago, when they lost in the final on penalties to Argentina.
A Kylian Mbappe hat-trick could not stop Messi's men from reigning supreme in Doha, but Didier Deschamps' side will be out for revenge to reclaim the trophy they won in 2018.
However, the supercomputer has calculated that France will come up short once more and are second favourites to lift the trophy, with a chance of 13%.
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France will have to navigate their way past Senegal, Iraq and Erling Haaland's Norway in Group I. Should they come out on top, they are set to play one of the best third-placed teams.
They will be fancied to come through that, before likely clashing with Germany in a blockbuster last-16 match.
France have a 47.9% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, according to the supercomputer, while Germany have a 33.8% chance. A giant is set to fall early on!
England waiting in the wings
Although they have their best squad in years, the big question on the lips of many England fans is, can they finally get over the line?
A Harry Kane-led side lost back-to-back European Championship finals under Gareth Southgate, while they were eliminated in the semi-finals at the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
Kane skied a penalty during the quarter-finals against France in Qatar in 2022 as that tournament ended in more disappointment, but the Bayern Munich forward's goalscoring credentials this season (61 in all competitions) have no doubt boosted The Three Lions' chances.
Opta has given England a 11.2% chance of winning their first World Cup since 1966, while they have been tipped to go deep into the tournament.
According to the supercomputer, there is a 19% chance of reaching the final in New Jersey.
The chances are they will face the winner of Group A in the last 16 - should they get there - which would be either Mexico, South Africa, South Korea or the Czech Republic. Opta predicts that it will be hosts Mexico, who have a 48% chance of topping their group.
Should England win Group L, Opta predicts they will eventually bump into Brazil in the quarter-finals. The Three Lions have been given a 47.7% chance of reaching that stage, while they have a 30.3% chance of making the last four, compared to Brazil's 22.1%.
What about Argentina, Portugal, Brazil and Germany?
It is easy to predict - and expect - the favourites to progress to the latter stages, but as we all know too well, the World Cup can throw up some monumental upsets.
Spain, France and England may have been heavily tipped to go all the way, but there are a cluster of nations not far behind them in the pecking order.
Holders Argentina have been given just a 0.8% less chance of winning the trophy than England.
Then, there is a bit of a drop, as Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal bid for their first World Cup to give the 41-year-old icon a fairytale international send-off.
The 2016 European champions have a 7% chance of succeeding in the USA, while Brazil have even less of a chance, according to Opta, with 6.6%.
Four-time winners Germany, once a dominant force in world football, won the tournament in 2014 but have not progressed beyond the group stage since then.
Although they have been heavily tipped to end that hoodoo this summer, they have been given a slim chance of going all the way, with 5.1%.
The rest of the teams have less than 5% chance of becoming World Champions. Here is the Opta supercomputer's top 20...
Opta supercomputer World Cup predictions
Image credit: Getty Images
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