Liverpool favourites to win UEFA Champions League, Inter Milan pip Arsenal as runners-up - Opta Predictor
By Jonny Bray
Updated 04/12/2024 at 08:25 GMT
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As the UEFA Champions League knock-out stages draw ever-nearer, Opta Predictor has had its say on who is in pole position to take the European crown. Liverpool lead the way having won all of their Champions League encounters so far this season - including against holders Real Madrid. Opta have also taken a look at the most influential goalkeepers in this year's competition.
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Liverpool are the favourites to win this season's UEFA Champions League, according to Opta Predictor.
Arne Slot’s side are currently two points clear at the top of the league stage table, having won all five of their fixtures so far - most recently downing holders Real Madrid at Anfield.
Opta Predictor has calculated that The Reds currently have a 20.7% chance of winning the tournament and a 51.3% chance of making it to the semi-finals.
Liverpool will face Girona live on TNT Sports and discovery+ next Tuesday, and Opta's recent statistics suggest Arne Slot's side can already have one eye on the knock-out stages, with a 99.7% probability of qualifying automatically for the last 16.
The Merseyside club have made a storming start under Slot - who succeeded Jurgen Klopp in the summer - sitting nine points clear atop the Premier League table while beating the likes of AC Milan and Bayer Leverkusen to uphold their perfect Champions League record.
The forecast also suggests that Serie A giants Inter Milan are the side most likely to challenge Liverpool for the crown.
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The Italian club are second in the league stage table with 13 points. Only a 0-0 draw with Manchester City stands in their way of a perfect run, which has also seen them defeat Arsenal 1-0 at the San Siro.
Inter have a 14.9% chance of lifting the Champions League trophy for the fourth time in their history.
The 2022/23 runners-up also boast a 98.1% chance of progressing to the last 16 automatically, with just Leverkusen, Sparta Prague and Monaco left to come in the league stage.
Arsenal may be seventh in the 36-team standings, but that has not stopped Opta from suggesting that they are the third most likely team to lift the trophy in Munich next May.
The Gunners have been given a 12.3% chance of winning the tournament and a 94% likelihood of securing immediate passage to the last 16 despite suffering one draw and one defeat in their opening five games.
Manchester City are fourth with a 9.5% chance of winning a second Champions League trophy after a downturn in their form that has seen them drop to 17th in the league stage table.
Pep Guardiola's side most recently let slip a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 with Feyenoord, while they also suffered a chastening 4-1 defeat to Sporting CP.
| Team | Last 16 | Winners |
| Liverpool | 99.7% | 20.7% |
| Inter Milan | 98.1% | 14.9% |
| Arsenal | 94% | 12.3% |
| Manchester City | 76.1% | 9.5% |
| Atalanta | 87.5% | 6.2% |
| Real Madrid | 64.4% | 5.9% |
| Barcelona | 90.7% | 5.7% |
| Bayern Munich | 83.3% | 4.6% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77.7% | 4.1% |
| Sporting Lisbon | 77.9% | 3.2% |
Barcelona are the fourth and final side with more than a 90% chance of reaching the last 16 automatically.
They are currently third, three points behind Liverpool with a 90.7% of progressing straight to the last 16, but just a 5.7% chance of winning the tournament.
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GAZZANIGA UCL'S BEST GOALKEEPER
Opta have also found a way to measure a goalkeeper's shot-stopping performance in the Champions League.
They have used expected goals on target, or xGOT, to outline which goalkeepers have made the biggest impact this term.
Expected goals on target stat is used to measure the likelihood of an on-target shot resulting in a goal.
| Player | Prevented Goals |
| Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona) | +4.07 |
| Lucas Chevalier (Lille) | +3.93 |
| Dmytro Riznyk (Shakhtar Donetsk) | +3.85 |
| Yann Sommer (Inter Milan) | +3.39 |
| David Raya (Arsenal) | +3.35 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher (Liverpool) | +3.18 |
| Mattia Perin (Juventus) | +2.64 |
| Emiliano MartĂnez (Aston Villa) | +2.61 |
| Lukasz Skorupski (Bologna) | +2.61 |
| Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid) | +2.01 |
It takes into account the underlying chance quality, or xG, and the endpoint of the attempt on goal.
Opta then adds in how many goals a keeper has actually conceded, in order to produce a clearer measure of their performance.
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Girona goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga currently leads the way with +4.07 prevented goals.
In second is Lille's Lucas Chevalier, who has helped his side to 12 in the league stage table with a +3.93 prevented goals.
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In behind is Shakhtar Donetsk's Dmytro Riznyk with +3.85 and Inter's Swiss stopper Yann Sommer on +3.39.
Three Premier League goalkeepers have cracked the top ten, with Arsenal's David Raya in fifth on +3.35.
CaoimhĂn Kelleher has impressed while deputising for Alisson Becker, and he is in sixth with +3.18, while Villa's Emiliano Martinez is in eighth with +2.61.
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