Will Man City regret selling 'future Ballon d'Or winner'? - Numbers behind Julian Alvarez' form at Atletico Madrid

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The return of the UEFA Champions League this week would have been a tough watch for Manchester City fans. Not only did their club exit the competition in the play-offs, they were forced to watch Julian Alvarez light up the Bernabeu with a stunner. Did Pep Guardiola make a mistake in selling the Argentine to Atletico Madrid? With the help of Opta, we break down the statistics of his season so far.

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"Pep Guardiola must be sitting there and going, ‘I wish he had wanted to stay at Man City’."

These were the words of TNT Sports pundit Rio Ferdinand after watching Julian Alvarez score one of the best goals of the UEFA Champions League this season - and who could argue with him?

The 25-year-old curled an unstoppable effort past the dive of Real Madrid's No. 1 Thibaut Courtois to silence the Santiago Bernabeu in the first leg of the last-16 tie.

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The stunning strike was not enough as Atletico slipped to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of their bitter rivals, but Alvarez had once again shown he is more than capable of playing a part in knocking out the reigning Champions League holders in the second leg.

How Manchester City have missed his goalscoring prowess this season!

With the help of our friends at Opta, we take a look at Alvarez' numbers this season and see whether he can emulate his compatriot Lionel Messi and one day get his hands on the Ballon d'Or.

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Debut season delight

Alvarez is no stranger to enjoying success in his first season with his new club.

The striker could not have wished for a better campaign during his debut term at the Etihad Stadium as he played an important role in helping Pep Guardiola's men complete the treble in 2022/23.

He scored on his debut against Liverpool in the Community Shield and went on to score 17 goals in 49 appearances for his new club.

Although the season will likely be remembered for Erling Haaland's record-breaking exploits, Alvarez' contribution must not be forgotten as he stepped up with crucial goals.

As City were looking to chase down Arsenal in the title race, Alvarez grabbed an important equaliser against Liverpool, which led to a 4-1 win. He also scored a fabulous winning goal at Fulham in a 2-1 victory for The Citizens on their way to lifting the Premier League trophy.

Let's not forget that this all happened after Alvarez had been influential in helping Argentina become World Cup winners during that same season.

Julian Alvarez with the UEFA Champions League trophy.

Image credit: Getty Images

Could he be on the verge of another treble with Atletico Madrid?

Only time will tell, but after joining the La Liga club last summer in a deal reported to be worth £82million, he has become the focal point for Diego Simeone's side.

Atletico sit one point behind Barcelona in the league table as well as being one game away from reaching the Copa del Rey final.

They finished in fifth place in the new league phase of the Champions League and Alvarez played a huge part in their progression after he scored a fine brace to lead his 10-man team past Bayer Leverkusen earlier in the campaign.

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Alvarez will need to back up his stunning goal at the Bernabeu with another classy performance if Atletico are to stand any chance of reaching the last eight of the competition.

"This kid is a wonderful footballer, plays multiple positions, works hard and has that ridiculous quality," said Ferdinand on Tuesday night.

How Guardiola could use a player like Alvarez right now as he looks to rebuild his current squad.

How much do Man City miss Alvarez?

Speaking on Tuesday night, TNT Sports expert Karen Carney said: "I think whether you’re a Man City fan or not, why did they let him go?

"But he went with the wishes of Pep Guardiola so whatever the reason and they paid £80m+ for him, but he’s well worth it. The time on his side, what he’s won and the pedigree is there."

Alvarez's departure from the Etihad is all the more surprising when you consider his stats during his final season at the club.

The Argentina international made 54 appearances in all competitions and contributed with 19 goals and 13 assists in the process.

He started in 31 of City's league games but, perhaps tellingly, he was named on the bench for the final four matches during the title run-in and was also a substitute in their FA Cup final defeat to Manchester United.

Last season, Guardiola's side scored 62 goals in the league in their first 27 matches, with Alvarez having contributed eight goals.

At the same stage this time around, City have scored nine fewer goals and no attacking player apart from Haaland has more than eight league goals.

When you compare how Alvarez has performed compared to City's current forward options this season, it makes for grim reading.

All Comps 24/25	Alvarez	Savinho	Doku	Grealish	Marmoush	Haaland
Goals	22	2	6	2	3	28
Assists	5	9	7	5	0	4
Expected Goals	13.81	6.23	2.71	2.65	2.2	29.88
Expected Assists	4.26	8.32	3.5	6.16	0.9	2.53

At the start of the year, Joe Cole told TNT Sports that City were paying the price for letting so much attacking talent leave the club, and the numbers speak for themselves.

"I think they’ve made mistakes - selling Cole Palmer, letting Delap leave the club, and Julian Alvarez leaving," he said.

"I think those are three massive mistakes Manchester City have made, and now they have to spend money to rectify them.

"But I do think Pep will be galvanised by this, and it will excite him trying to find a solution. They concede too many counter-attacks. The pressing isn’t as aggressive as it has been."

Future Ballon d'Or winner?

Cole also predicted Alvarez would have an accolade-filled career following his impressive display against Real Madrid in midweek.

"He’s won it all, he’s done it all. He’s 25 years of age, and I still think we’re going to see the best of him in the next five years.

"I think he’s a Ballon d’Or winner of the future."

Mohamed Salah is the frontrunner for the prestigious award at the moment, but if Alvarez can steer Atletico to a historic La Liga and Champions League double, who could possibly deny him the trophy?

Alvarez is enjoying a stellar campaign so far, but his numbers compared to the best forwards in the world suggest that he might not be the favourite this season.

All Comps 24/25	Alvarez	Salah	Mbappe	Lewandowski	Dembele
Goals	22	30	28	34	26
Assists	5	22	5	3	6
Expected Goals	13.81	26	28.72	33.5	20.2
Expected Assists	4.26	9.5	7.03	2.3	8.3

Fellow summer recruit Conor Gallagher was full of praise for his club team-mate and warned that he cannot see his fine season slowing down any time soon.

"It was an unreal goal," he told TNT Sports. "It doesn’t surprise me, he’s playing with so much confidence.

"He’s a top player and a top guy as well, He’s done great this season and I’m sure it will continue."

While Manchester City face a battle to finish in the Champions League places this season, Alvarez may well be competing at the highest level for many years to come and although it was Rodri's injury which triggered their slump in form, the club also appear to be paying the price for letting Alvarez leave.

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