New 2026 FIFA World Cup winner tipped by supercomputer as England odds take hit - but what about France, Lionel Messi's Argentina and Spain?
By Ben Southby
Updated 30/06/2026 at 05:12 GMT+1
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The iconic Opta supercomputer has made fresh 2026 FIFA World Cup predictions ahead of the knockout stages following the conclusion of the group games - and there has been some movement in the top four.
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Heading into the tournament, the supercomputer had Spain tipped for glory as the most likely to go all the way in North America, while it fancied France to miss out again as the second favourites.
England were ranked third in the supercomputer's prediction, with an 11.2% chance of winning their first World Cup since 1966, but that has taken a small hit (1.52%) following their first three games, with Thomas Tuchel's side now given a 9.68% chance of world domination.
The biggest jump - by far - is Argentina, who were originally ranked fourth in the predictions with a 10.4% chance.
But a full dose of Lionel Messi magic has surged them up the supercomputer's table, and they now sit second behind France with a 16.26% chance of lifting the trophy on successive occasions.
Messi scored six goals as Argentina stayed perfect in the group stages to spark their World Cup defence into life, with victories over Algeria, Austria and Jordan.
Interestingly, Argentina have been given a better chance than France and Kylian Mbappe of reaching the last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final.
But it is Didier Deschamps' side that are the slight favourites to claim victory at the New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19, with an 18.66% chance.
France's projected route is slightly tougher on paper, starting with Sweden, before facing Paraguay, Canada or Morocco and then, potentially, Spain.
Meanwhile, Argentina begin their knockout quest against the tournament underdogs Cabo Verde, before a probable tie against Egypt. Next would be a quarter-final against one of Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana, before likely facing England or Brazil in the semi-final.
England might have won their group to avoid the likes of France, Spain and Portugal, but they have been dealt a tough path to navigate, should they reach their first World Cup final since 1966.
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It starts with a test against DR Congo in the round of 32, before a projected run of Mexico, Brazil and Argentina from the last 16 to the semi-final.
There are still a strong contingent of outsiders in the supercomputer's predictions, with Brazil (9.51%), Portugal (5.05%) and the Netherlands (4.30%) given a slim chance of success.
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